Climate predictions indicate the emergence of a weak La Niña phenomenon, expected to persist until the January-March 2025 quarter.
Reports from IDEAM suggest that during the last months of 2024, rainfall patterns may be close to normal or slightly above average, with a high probability of extreme weather events. This could pose challenges for agricultural management and the mitigation of its adverse effects.
Check out the November Agroclimatic Bulletin here: https://upra.gov.co/es-co/Boletines_Reportes/01_BolAgroClimanNov.pdf
Bogotá, (@UPRAColombia, @dorairey, @alexander_rodr_). The Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA) has published the Agroclimatic Bulletin based on IDEAM's information, whose agroclimatic predictions indicate that for the period Nov 2024 – Jan 2025, 117,100 hectares will be at risk due to medium-level water excess, equivalent to 0.1% of Colombia's territory.
The at-risk areas are distributed across eight departments: Magdalena, Cesar, Meta, Huila, Antioquia, Bolívar, Norte de Santander, and Chocó, where crops and agricultural activities in specific zones could be affected, depending on the climatic and geographical characteristics of each region.
"Agroclimatic predictions indicate that around one million hectares within the agricultural frontier will be at risk due to excess water, most of which are in the Andean, Pacific, and Caribbean regions. It is advisable to consult IDEAM's hydroclimatic and landslide warning bulletins, as well as the recommendations from the national and regional agroclimatic technical tables," stated Dora Inés Rey Martínez, acting director of UPRA.
Meanwhile, Alfonso Triana, a UPRA expert, explained: "December is a transition month between the second rainy season and the first drier period of the following year in extensive areas of the Andean, Caribbean, and Orinoquia regions. Due to the possible La Niña event, this transition may be delayed, leading to a tendency for continued rainfall, especially in the Caribbean and Andean regions, with some extreme weather events."
Additionally, Eliécer David Díaz, also a UPRA expert, added: "January and February typically mark the dry season across most of the country, but La Niña may alter this pattern, leading to increased rainfall in some areas of the Caribbean and Andean regions. March is a transition month between the first dry season and the first rainy season in the Andean region. Predictions indicate conditions close to the typical patterns for this month in most of the national territory."
Through the Agricultural Risk Management Information System (SIGRA), UPRA's Agroclimatic Bulletin presents specific crop-based estimates to highlight the most vulnerable areas, focusing on the regions where IDEAM has classified the risk levels as medium or high.
"The evolution of these forecasts allows for more precise planning for farmers and authorities, facilitating the early identification of critical regions, the management of agricultural infrastructure such as drainage systems in specific areas, and the prioritization of the most vulnerable crops to mitigate economic losses. This ongoing monitoring is essential for making timely decisions and minimizing the impact of excess water on the agricultural sector," concluded Alexánder Rodríguez Romero, UPRA’s Technical Director for Efficient Land Use and Land Adaptation.
