18/9/2024
Decrease in forecasted intensity of potential La Niña phenomenon, but vigilance is still needed
Rainfall conditions at the end of 2024 are expected to be above normal, according to the Agroclimatic Bulletin from the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA), based on predictions from the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies (IDEAM). The departments of Magdalena, Cesar, Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, and Cundinamarca are identified as having the most hectares within the Agricultural Frontier at risk due to increased rainfall.
Bogotá, D.C., (@UPRAColombia, @dorairey). In its latest Agroclimatic Bulletin, UPRA highlighted that around 10,000 hectares of cultivable land are at risk of water excess, potentially affecting the normal development of certain crops such as tropical fruits and oilseeds, which account for 90% of the hectares that could be impacted.
According to the Bulletin, "as of mid-August, ENSO-neutral conditions continue to be observed, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the onset of the La Niña phenomenon." The ENSO-neutral phase refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present.
What is the probability of a La Niña event?
UPRA explained that there is a 65% probability of La Niña occurring between September and November of this year. The report adds that "with the probable occurrence of La Niña by the end of this year, as predicted by IDEAM, the rainy season in the second half of the year will likely reflect near-normal behavior (using a 30-year reference period), except towards the end of the season, where irregularities could lead to above-normal rainfall."
Dora Inés Rey Martínez, Acting Director of UPRA, emphasized, "This could result in above-average rainfall, which is why it's crucial for producers and national and regional entities to prepare in advance for the impacts of possible extreme climatic anomalies on the second-semester harvests."
The five departments with the most significant agricultural frontier and the highest risk of water excess are Magdalena, Cesar, Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, and Cundinamarca.
Additionally, 14.4% of areas designated for Small-Scale, Family, and Community Agriculture in the country are at low risk, while 1.6% are at medium risk of water excess. "If this risk materializes, it is expected to occur in the last quarter of 2024, particularly in agricultural areas farmed by small producers or in alluvial zones or soils with high water tables," the Bulletin stated.
